Before I head off to Limerick tomorrow to watch the first test, I thought I'd make a prediction of the results. This is pretty much impossible but I want to give it a shot anyway. The Irish have the edge in three really important ways: familiarity with the round ball, familiarity with shooting for goal, and familiarity with the game in general. The Aussies have the edge in...
fitness, tackling ability, and using the mark.
Round Ball
The importance of the Irish familiarity in this respect cannot be understated. The lads can shoot from angles and put a bit of spin or curve on the ball in ways the Aussies simply wouldn't consider. In addition to this, kicking the ball into space for a teammate to run after is second nature to the Irish. The Aussies on the other hand don't typically kick the ball to free space because of the wild bounces an oval ball can take. Instead they try to move the ball without letting it touch the ground. Essentially, experience with only the oval ball limits the Aussies' creativity.
Shooting for Goal
There really doesn't seem to be enough consideration given to this point. In the last series in 2008 the Irish outscored the Aussies 7 to 3 on goals but only won by 5 points. The difference was the instinct of GAA trained forwards to go for goal when the opportunity presents itself. In contrast, there are no proper goals (or goal-keepers for that matter) in the Aussie Rules Footy. Of course the Aussies will get goals but at 6 points apiece the goal attacking instincts of Brogan, Cavanagh, and Glynn are a welcome advantage.
Experience
The Irish team has more experience than the relatively new Aussie panel. This is huge because a tremendously important part of success in this code is to move the ball on quickly when in possession. Hesitation of any measure will lead to a tackle and a turnover. The Aussie's understand this from their code. Thankfully our lads have the experience to know not to put the head down and try to break tackles.
Aussie Advantages: Tackling
If the Irish are rusty or don't use their experience they will be harshly introduced to a strong point of the Aussie side - tackling. The Aussies are hard men for whom aggression is a way of life. The tackles can be vicious as we have seen in series down through the years. More importantly, they will be more familiar with the techniques of tackling while the Irish will have a harder time with that aspect of play.
Mark
Another aspect of play the Aussies are more comfortable with is the mark. Its taken straight from the Aussie code. We did try it here in the league on kickouts but it didn't take and seemed only to slow things down (ironically the opposite was the intention). In my opinion the flow of the game is destroyed by the mark. I don't think the Aussies are better at fielding the high ball than the Irish. I merely think they are more familiar with using the mark strategically. In series past, there have been times when the Aussies move the ball 50 or 60 meters using low-risk mark passing to which the Irish are slow to respond. No doubt we'll see this happen again.
Fitness
The Aussies are professionals though the gap is closing. We heard Tommy Walsh and Tadhg Kennelly talk this week about the level of fitness required to be an Aussie Rules athlete. Their training, nutrition, and recovery time are superior. While they can spend the day after a match icing the bruises, our lads are at work on the Monday morning. This advantage typically plays out with the Aussies outscoring us in the second half of both matches.
Prediction: Ireland 60 - Australia 50
I have to make a prediction now and I can't pick against this Irish side. I think their experience and offensive firepower will prove the keys to the match. Bernard Brogan is going to be Man of the Match with a total somewhere around 15 points. The new Aussie players won't know what to make of Sean Cavanagh's mix of strength and skill. He's well rested from Tyrone's early exit from the Championship so he'll be ready to play. Tommy Walsh is a wild-card but I think he could make a big impact.
So that's all for now...Bring on the Aussies and GO IRELAND!!!
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