22 Aug 2010 at 3:30pm on RTÉ
From Croke Park - So the smart money is on Cork. They are the only safe semi-final bet according to the bookies. Seán Moran makes a solid case for a Cork victory in the Irish Times. Jason Sherlock is predicting a draw! What the hell is that about?!? Rather than make the safe choice like Moran or wimp out and not make a choice at all like Sherlock, I'm picking the Dubs. Here's why:
Reason #1: Dublin have no pressure.
I like the Dubs to win because they have already overachieved this summer and have nothing to lose. They dispatched one of the 'Big Three' and are looking for more. They are too young to give a damn about the moment or be nervous in their own house. The Dubs will be playing with all the lunacy and support a sold-out Croker can provide.
Cork on the other hand have all the pressure on them. They are the favourite to win the All-Ireland now. Conor Counihan's job as manager may be on the line if they fail to produce. They have been so close for so long and every summer find nightmares in place of their dreams. This Cork team is not as good as last year. Everyone in the locker room knows it. If not for the fact that the Rossies ran out of steam with 20 minutes to go in the quarter-final, the men from Cork might already be done for the year. Graham Canty is hurt and the Cork confidence has to be shaken. If the Dubs push for long enough, the favourites will topple.
Reason #2: Dublin can compete with Cork in the midfield.
The Cork midfield present all sorts of match-up problems for most teams. They can put four guys in the middle with great speed and strength who each just happen to be about 6'5". Even if Graham Canty can't overcome the hamstring injury, that remains a big group led by Nicholas Murphy and Alan O'Connor. They get up and down the field, anticipate well, and know when to take chances and when to hang back.
Perhaps no other team in the country other than Dublin have the athletes to match Cork in the middle. In the past Dublin was often criticized for selecting great athletes, not great footballers. Manager Pat Gilroy has made adjustments but you can still find great athletes in Ross McConnell and Michael Dara MacAuley. The Dubs swarm in midfield and typically win the breaking ball on kick-outs. In the middle third against Tyrone the Dubs were hammering them. Tyrone chose to go for the short kick-out rather than risk it. Controlling the midfield against Cork will be a lot tougher than against Tyrone. If the Dubs can pull it off they are going to win the match.
Reason #3: Cork have no go-to scorer in the closing minutes.
I don't particularly like Bernard Brogan. I know scorers think 'shot first, pass second' but Bernard's shot selection has been a bit much for me in previous years. If you've ever watched him in a club match then you know what I mean even if you might get slapped in the Hill 16 pub for saying it. Still, in the final 10 minutes, Dublin will look to him and his brother Alan to take the big shots. That fact creates opportunities for others and makes Dublin tough in closing out matches. Many say the over-reliance on Bernard Brogan is a key weakness...well it has gotten them to an All-Ireland semi-final. Besides, Alan is due for a huge match.
On the other hand, Cork don't have a scorer to rely on at the end of the match. Dublin won't give up anything easy. The Cork will have to earn their points. In the end, when the frantic pace of the match leads to panic, Dublin know who to find...Cork do not.
By 5pm the capital will be bursting with anticipation at a return to the All-Ireland final and Jason Sherlock will be wishing he had the guts to make the prediction.
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